Middle East

Even in Death, Soleimani Is the Winner

In response to Soleimani’s assassination, Iran is unlikely to instigate a third world war, and probably wouldn’t seek anything so drastic as to invite a U.S. invasion of the country. Even so, American interests in the Levant and Persian Gulf have been thoroughly undermined by Trump’s bravado, and risky escalations will continue. The U.S., as it did over the weekend, will continue to pursue militia members loyal to Soleimani’s cause, not yet bringing the conflict onto Iran’s turf but scrapping the old parameters of the conflict. U.S. forces will be under pressure to leave Iraq in a hurry, further fraying the alliance. Israel sits ready for rocket war with neighboring Hamas and Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia—which tested a rapprochement with Iran in the aftermath of the attack on the Abqaiq oil facility and the tanker rancor of the autumn—now, along with the United Arab Emirates, may be caught in a new round of crossfire. Meanwhile, Assad is firmly ensconced in Damascus. A revival of the Iran nuclear deal is an absolute nonstarter.

What’s clear is that Iran has only been made stronger by U.S. blunders. And Trump, who promises in rallies to bring troops home, brought back the prospect of a ground invasion. A Marine veteran told me over the weekend that he had checked up on his paperwork to make sure he was no longer in active reserve. The last thing he wants to do is serve in an unnecessary war.