Drug smuggling

Narco Submarines At All-Time High

Last year yielded a bumper crop of narco-submarines, and it looks set to continue. These purpose-built vessels are one way Colombian cartels smuggle drugs towards the United States. The number discovered by authorities are at an all-time high. Based on open source intelligence there were 36 reported incidents in 2019. This compares to just two a decade earlier.

The reported incidents, when they are interdicted or discovered, are only the tip of the iceberg. Many more get through. And despite the higher rate of interdictions, they keep coming. So there is no sign that the losses are at a level which deters the criminals.

Interdiction rates are difficult to measure because we have half the picture. We can only count the ones which don’t get through. Speaking to people with knowledge of the subject, historically the percentage intercepted or found has been estimated to be between 5% and 15%. If we take a very conservative view and say that as many as 20% were either interdicted or otherwise discovered in 2019, extrapolating the reported incidents gives us an estimate of 180 narco submarine trips in total. It could be more.