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Friday, November 6, 2020

Poll results

 

The polling industry blows it again



The pollsters got Donald Trump wrong — again.

When all the votes are tallied, Joe Biden isn’t going to win the popular vote by double digits. Trump lost Wisconsin by a point, not the 17-point defeat one survey suggested. And Trump obviously didn't go down in an election night landslide, as some polls suggested would happen.

It wasn’t just the public polls that suggested Tuesday would be a big Democratic night. Much of the private polling on which both parties rely suggested Biden would win solidly, and they expected Democrats to benefit down the ballot.

Now that it hasn’t happened, pollsters are wondering whether their methods are fundamentally broken — or just unable to measure Trump’s support, specifically.

“This is not just a few public pollsters out there that missed it. This is something that is unique to this election,” said Patrick Murray, who runs the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “It just seems to be that if the name ‘Donald Trump’ is on the ballot, all bets are off when it comes to the polls being right.”

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