Nuclear power in the future: risks of a lifetime
The chance of one reactor experiencing a meltdown among a fleet of 100 reactors operating within the NRC’s safety goal for 40 years is nearly one in three (32.97 percent), or slightly higher than the risk from taking two turns on a six-chamber revolver during Russian roulette. The chance of a meltdown from that fleet operating for 60 years rises to 45.12 percent, or slightly higher than taking three Russian roulette turns. And the meltdown risk from the fleet operating for 80 years is 55.07 percent, or roughly the risk from taking four and one-half Russian roulette turns.
Time is a risk factor being ignored by the NRC. The agency’s safety goal put the risk of meltdown at one-in-three for the 100 reactors licensed for 40 years. When the NRC began renewing licenses for 20 and perhaps now 40 additional years, the agency did not revisit its safety goal and seems tolerant of the meltdown risk rising to one-in-two or greater. This is a failure to recognize that aging takes a significant safety toll on nuclear reactors—not just because parts wear out over time, but also because refurbishment and replacement sometimes have unanticipated consequences...
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