Brexit impact

A Post-Brexit Britain Would Double Down on Middle East Alliances

Opponents of Brexit often see leaving the EU as a step to isolationism – or international irrelevance. Yet a post-Brexit Britain would likely want to demonstrate that it was still a force in the world. For the sake of domestic security and economic concerns, Britain would still need its allies, in the Middle East as well as in the EU. The MENA region will remain important for trade and investment links ($18 billion of British exports went to MENA in 2014), diaspora communities on both sides, counterterrorism cooperation and defence priorities.

Leaving the EU is unlikely to have a major impact on the UK’s ability to project force in the Middle East. Any military interventions, as in the past, would involve ad hoc coalitions or partnerships with leading powers like the US or France, rather than the larger and oft-divided EU. A post-Brexit Britain would work more closely with Anglophone and Middle Eastern allies, including more cooperation with militaries in Jordan and the Gulf.