Intel forecasts 

With ‘Brexit,’ Washington’s Direct Line to the Continent Suddenly Frays

... Like the Arab Spring, the result of Britain’s referendum took Washington by surprise. As late as early last week there was something between a hope and an assumption that the vote would “go the other way,” as Secretary of State John Kerry said in Rome on Sunday. As a result, there was no serious planning for the all-consuming work of reimagining the European relationship, a task that will face President Obama for the next six months, and his successor for years to come.

Mr. Kerry, usually the optimist, sounded almost downbeat as he arrived in Italy. He did not make any references to a “shriveled Europe,” as one of his top aides did in a conversation over the weekend. But he made clear that European allies are also going to have to rethink their relationships with the United States.