Climate security

How nuclear weapons research revealed new climate threats

The results, published in Nature Communications in December, also suggest that shrinking sea ice may have played a role in the extreme, costly drought that plagued California for most of this decade. That was driven by a “ridiculously resilient ridge” closely resembling the one that Cvijanovic’s simulation predicts.

Climate models are often derided as unreliable approximations of Earth’s complex systems, particularly among climate change deniers. But thanks to advances in computational power, the inclusion of more components, and other technical strides, these simulations are becoming incredibly powerful.

They can predict with growing certainty how global warming is already altering the planet, and how it’s likely to in the future. In particular, the improvements are helping scientists to untangle the complex mechanisms driving extreme weather events.