Economic security

Sunny days for the economy can't last forever


1. It's getting late: The recovery from the Great Recession is already one of the longest economic expansions in American history.

And recently the economic cycle has gone from humming along to booming. Unemployment is down to a 17-year low, small business sentiment is roaring, and economic growth hit the 3% mark twice last year.

But economic expansions don't last forever. A recession comes along eventually and ruins the party.

Wall Street is already pondering the demise of this recovery, which in May would become the second-longest in history.

Most economists and investors believe the U.S. economy is either in or approaching "late cycle," meaning the final chapter of the business cycle. At that stage, employers struggle to find workers, pushing wages and inflation higher.

The good news is that 91% of investors polled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch this month believe a recession is "unlikely" at this point. But the same poll showed 70% of investors think the global economy is in "late cycle." That's the highest since January 2008 and up from around 20% in 2015.

Late cycle doesn't mean game over. Just like in baseball, the later innings of the economic cycle can still be successful, for Main Street and Wall Street. Stocks tend to boom and wages rise more meaningfully.