Politics

The Myth of Russian Weakness

In discussions of international affairs, it has become a commonplace for Western observers to view Russia as a declining power, destined to succumb to a string of domestic and foreign problems that have beset it for some time.

To begin with, Russia’s 2014 conquest of Crimea and its support for the Ukrainian separatists backfired in grand style as Kiev, Moldova, and Georgia signed EU association agreements and stepped up military cooperation with NATO members and other western states. Similarly, while remaining the predominant military power in Central Asia, with bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, Russia has lost its economic preeminence in the region to China, which has also made important military inroads by holding joint exercises with the Tajik and Kyrgyz armed forces. No less importantly, Moscow is still reeling from the impact of the Western sanctions, which are unlikely to be lifted any time soon, while its attempt to foment far-right populism across Europe has thus far failed.

These setbacks have led Western observers to doubt whether Russians would be prepared to tolerate another six years of a Putin presidency. This year Putin’s rule – which has already lasted for full 17 years – will become the longest since Stalin’s. An entire generation of young Russians has grown up knowing no other national leader. How much longer will they be willing to endure the calamities he inflicts upon them?