Terror threat

With Caliphate Gone, What's Next for Islamic State?

Islamic State, the richest and most destructive Islamist militant organization the world has seen, has been subdued in Iraq and Syria by an array of forces ranging from the U.S. military to Iranian-backed militias. Its fighters have been pushed into ever smaller redoubts, and its leaders are in hiding. But the metastatic nature of violent jihad means the story isn’t likely to end there. Islamic State’s forerunner, al-Qaeda, faced the possibility of destruction in late 2001 when it was driven from its sanctuaries in Afghanistan by invading U.S. forces. It survived and helped inspire a new generation of extremists -- including those who formed Islamic State.

1. Is Islamic State finished in Syria and Iraq?

Not quite. With its self-declared caliphate -- a state that claims dominion over all Muslims -- in ruins, the group said in a video near the end of 2017 that “jihad had entered a new stage.” That probably signaled the group’s intention to return to the insurgency tactics it used in its early incarnations following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003: bombings, assassinations and sniper attacks. Its enigmatic leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is thought to be alive...