Outer space

Four huge rockets are due to debut in 2020—will any make it?

...There is now a chance that up to four large and powerful rockets will make their debuts during a single year, as four boosters have maiden launches scheduled for 2020. Of course, there is also a chance that none of them will fly. Delays seem inevitable in the launch industry, especially with such large and in some ways unprecedented boosters. But given the uncertainty and the unprecedented potential, we thought it might be fun to assess whether any or all of them might make it.

Ars reached out to several launch industry experts and colleagues in aerospace journalism to gauge opinions on the viability of these launch dates. To be perfectly clear: the "confidence" in achieving a 2020 launch—and "estimated launch dates" below are at best educated guesses—is a reflection of what these informed people think may happen. Keep in mind that there are many, many variables that go into an actual launch date: funding, hardware readiness, component testing, integrated testing, software, ground systems readiness, and so much more. So caveat emptor.