Economic security

3 Big "What Ifs" for the U.S. Economy

There has been increasing angst surrounding whether or not the United States is heading into a recession. There are certainly reasons to be concerned. There always are the numerous “what ifs” for the U.S. economy that have increased the uncertainty of the outlook and raised the chances that something sinister could occur. But all news is not doom and gloom. To be clear, the United States is always heading for a recession. Death, taxes, and that a recession will one day come, are guarantees. The spike in google news trends for recession is one (somewhat anecdotal) piece of evidence.The data has long signaled that growth would decelerate in the U.S. in late 2018 and throughout 2019. But there is a difference between a slowing of growth and a collapsing of the economy into a recession. This reasoning is based on a more dovish Federal Reserve in 2019 and the belief that the U.S. labor market would remain healthy. The U.S.-China trade deal is a bit of a different story. A nominal deal is more likely than a comprehensive one as the U.S.-China conflict is more than simply trade— it is ideological . But a nominal deal is better than none at all...