Arctic

NATO NORTH? BUILDING A ROLE FOR NATO IN THE ARCTIC

Russia’s growing military assertiveness — in Ukraine, Syria, and beyond — has sparked fears over its intentions in the Arctic. The pace of Russian bomber patrols, submarine expeditions, and firing exercises in the Arctic are all at levels not seen since the depths of the Cold War. A growing chorus is calling for NATO to take on a greater role in the Arctic to counter Russian aggression.

But the gathering storm over the Arctic is not just about Russian military activity, and framing it as such is dangerously short-sighted. Unfortunately, just as relations between Russia and the West are deteriorating, the Arctic region is undergoing a terrifying physical transformation. Arctic warming is racing ahead of our best models, burning through the system at a pace that is hard to comprehend. Parts of coastal Alaska are eroding 20 meters per year; the center of the pollock fishery in the Bering Sea is moving north 18 miles annually; and mass die-offs of seabirds, fish, and marine mammals are occurring. The Arctic is undergoing jarring changes in environmental, political, military, and economic domains — all at the same time. This transformation threatens to upend decades of stability. In this state of flux, any mishap or misunderstanding could generate enough friction to spark a serious crisis or even conflict.