Opinion

Russia in 2020. Like 2019, But More So

In many ways, Putin’s recent marathon press conference set the tone for the new year. It felt like a four hours and eighteen minutes long trailer to a new series of a long-running TV franchise that has run out of new ideas. There was a hint of a resolution of the perennial question of succession, but only a hint, such that it could still go in any direction. There were the usual complaints about how Russia is treated by the rest of the world. There were suggestions that the economy and people’s quality of life would improve in due course, but no real ideas. In short, it was a re-run rather than a re-boot.

This is probably going to prove a decent encapsulation of 2020 for Russia: like 2019, but more so. Of course, making predictions about the future is an activity inevitably leading to disappointment and error, and Putin and Russia is, like everyone else, subject to the whims and vicissitudes of fate and the rest of the world. Stuff happens. Yet the irony is that while Putin’s power within the system and also Russia’s agency in the world are still relatively great, the ideas, the resources, the courage to do much that is different largely appear to be lacking.