Middle East

A Crisis Management Mechanism in the Middle East Is Needed More Than Ever

The beginning of 2020 was marked by yet another major crisis in the Middle East region. The crisis culminated with the US elimination of General Qasem Soleimani and could have slipped towards direct military confrontation between the US and Iran — with unpredictable consequences not just for the MENA region but also for the international system at large — had the Iranian retaliatory strikes on US military bases in Iraq not paused the escalation of tensions. However, one should not be under any illusion: if there is a pause, it can be only temporary.

Growing volatility

As events unfolded, the US-Iran tensions crystallized over the political situation in Iraq. There, their struggle for influence seemed to tilt in Iran’s favour as the Iraqi Parliament voted a resolution demanding the withdrawal of American forces; Tehran appeared to be in a position to redirect the anger of the Iraqi population from their discontent with the Baghdad government to an anti-American feeling.

A few hours — and the tragic accidental downing of the Ukrainian plane near the capital airport of Tehran — were enough to bring about another reversal of the overall picture: "Iranians out" soon added to the "Americans out" shouts of Tahir square protesters in Baghdad. Iranian citizens started taking to the streets again, despite the massive crackdown on the last protests a few months ago, to denounce the incompetence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, and going as far as questioning the role of the Supreme leader himself. Drawing from these events, and more generally the past six months, observers and decision makers cannot restrict their analysis to traditional geopolitical dynamics anymore, but have to acknowledge popular unrest dynamics at work in a number of countries including Lebanon, Iraq and Iran. Regional governments would delude themselves if they were to believe that popular unrests are exclusively the product of foreign interferences.