International security

FORWARD BASING NATO AIRPOWER IN THE BALTICS IS A BAD IDEA

What would make better sense in terms of spending the Air Force’s ERI funding? The answer is to fund greater capacity (including much more prepositioned munitions and fuel) to operate from permanent or temporary air bases in places further removed from the Russian threat, such as in the United Kingdom, western Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands. These bases would receive active, Guard, and Reserve squadrons deploying from the United States to provide the mix of aircraft needed for this fight. From these arriving assets, U.S. Air Forces Europe could generate air superiority, suppression of enemy air defenses, and interdiction missions dedicated to a counter-attack against invading Russian forces in the Baltics, together with air refueling, electronic warfare, and airborne surveillance support from the relative safety of hardened rear area bases. Dozens of other airfields in relatively secure areas could be pressed into service through the Air Force’s innovative Forward Arming and Refueling Points concept. It has always been the case that there is a tradeoff between sortie generation (flying longer missions reduces the sortie rate) and the protection of one’s assets. When the choice is made about from where to fight, one ought to err on the side of caution; zero sorties can be generated from aircraft destroyed on their bases. In the present circumstances on NATO’s northeastern flank, to push airpower basing too far forward to satisfy political requirements is an unnecessarily risky move.