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Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Nuclear security

Nuclear arms control beyond the U.S. and Russia

Candidates for Multilateral Arms Control. Of the countries known to possess nuclear weapons, the United States (which has 4,670 nuclear warheads, of which 1,750 are deployed) and Russia (which has 4,490 nuclear warheads, of which 1,790 are deployed) are limited by treaties. France, China, and Britain are the logical next entrants to the arms control regime. France has 300 warheads, of which 280 are deployed; China has 260 warheads, of which zero are deployed; and Britain has 215 warheads, of which 120 are deployed. India and Pakistan have 100 to 120 and 110 to 130 nuclear warheads, respectively, and are continuing to build their arsenals. Israel and North Korea are also thought to possess nuclear weapons. Israel’s arsenal has been estimated at 80 warheads. There is little concrete information on North Korea’s arsenal, but some experts have said it may possess 10 to 16 weapons.In the nearly six decades since the advent of nuclear arms control, virtually all negotiated agreements to limit stockpiles of nuclear weapons have been concluded by the United States and the Soviet Union or Russia. That is logical, given that even today the U.S. and Russian arsenals are many times larger than those of other nuclear weapons states.
The United States continues to focus on bilateral nuclear reductions with Russia. However, in recent years, Russia has signaled its desire to include other nuclear weapons states—such as Britain, France, and China. Though it is unlikely that other states will agree to reduce or even cap their nuclear stockpiles without further reductions by the United States and Russia, it is useful to identify prospective entrants to the global arms control regime, as well as possible concrete means of pursing arms control on a multilateral basis.

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