Prediction

German military study: EU collapse conceivable worst case

The German military considers the disintegration of the European Union and the West over the next few decades a possibility, according to an internal report seen by Der Spiegel.

The 102-page “Strategic Perspective 2040” report — adopted in late February and kept under wraps since then — outlines six scenarios for how social trends and international conflicts are likely to play out and influence German security, the weekly magazine reported Saturday.

t includes a worst-case scenario in which the EU unravels and Germany is forced into a “reactive mode.” In this projection, the international order falls apart after “decades of instability,” value systems lose their influence and globalization grinds to a halt.

“EU enlargement has been largely abandoned, other states have left the community, Europe has lost its global competitiveness,” the report reads, according to Der Spiegel. “The increasingly disorderly, sometimes chaotic and conflict-prone world has dramatically changed the security environment of Germany and Europe.”