Defense

THIS ISN’T THE SURPRISE YOU WERE EXPECTING

Surprise is back. A generation of war where the U.S. military had overwhelming capabilities pushed surprise into the background. But today, surprise is ready to catch America off guard once more. China and Russia have become competing great powers that can challenge the U.S. military in all warfighting domains, especially close to their shores. A long peace between the great powers has lulled Americans into believing that such conflicts are obsolete. Changes in warfighting technology will transform the conduct of future battles in unexpected ways.

Exacerbating U.S. vulnerability is a cockiness arising from decades of obtaining easy victories over weak adversaries. Senior officials have told U.S. forces, not just that they are the best in the world, but that they are the best the world has ever known. As with Greek heroes of legend and literature, such hubris can lead to downfall. In 1806, the then-dominant Prussian army lost a century of military dominance in a single day at Jena and Auerstedt.

In thinking about surprise in war, we should start with the fundamental question: What is surprise? Surprise occurs when events are so different from a victim’s expectations that opponents gain a major advantage. Surprise is rarely absolute. Historically, the victim had at least some inkling of what was about to happen but could not come to a decision in time or acted too late to take effective countermeasures.