Chemical security

Boris Johnson fails to understand that intelligence means doubt

Yet intelligence-led decisions invariably involve some degree of doubt. We can be certain about what put Sergei and Yulia Skripal in intensive care, and novichoks are so difficult to handle that Porton Down concluded that probably only a nation state could have deployed them. That “probably”, however, is where real certainty ends. The nature of intelligence is not only that it can’t show its workings in public for fear of jeopardising lives in the field, but that it’s invariably partial. There will always be secrets we can’t crack, people whose heads we can’t get inside, strong – even overwhelming – probabilities, but not cast-iron certainties. That’s why raw intelligence material comes peppered with caveats, because credibility depends on honestly acknowledging what you can’t prove or don’t know.