How a US-China trade war would hurt us all
The tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs between the United States and China gives the impression the world’s two biggest economies are headed down the road towards a trade war, which would have hugely damaging economic consequences. But this could be averted if they continue quiet backroom discussions to open up their markets, particularly China’s.
The US imposition of tariffs on a range of Chinese imports – which amounts to a tax on imported goods – is the first step in a series of measures announced by the Trump administration. So far, China has responded by announcing tariffs on US imports. The next stage would be for the US to restrict Chinese investment into America.
Presumably, if this happens, then China would respond in kind. In other words, the tensions between the US and China could go beyond taxes and directly disrupt global supply chains as investment is targeted.
Any disruption to supply and distribution chains, which are a key part of world trade, could have a lasting impact. In the worst-case scenario, companies may have to relocate factories or distribution centres. Investment decisions affect employment and taxes raised, and are in some ways more disruptive than tariffs, which can be reversed more easily.
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