Biosecurity

Lew Olowski: Coronavirus worse than reported – here's how China is catching up to reality

China’s novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has killed and infected more people than officially reported.

Consider the latest numbers. In one day, total reported infections and deaths increased 44 percent and 23 percent, respectively. But not “because of any change in the shape of the outbreak,” which is nonetheless growing near-exponentially. Rather, it was merely because “the government changed the criteria by which it tracks confirmed cases.”

The official tally has been an underestimate and is still catching up to reality. As of Saturday, more than 1,500 people had reportedly died of the virus, with more than 69,000 cases reported worldwide. About 99 percent of the cases have been reported in China.

Even before the adjustment, circumstances suggested weeks ago that “the outbreak is spreading far beyond the official count of cases.”