Economy
The Chinese Century
Without fanfare—indeed,
with some misgivings about its new status—China has just overtaken the United
States as the world’s largest economy. This is, and should be, a wake-up
call—but not the kind most Americans might imagine.
© M. GARFAT/MGP (FEATHER), © GINO'S PREMIUM IMAGES
(LEAVES), BOTH FROM ALAMY; © CARY ANDERSON (WING), © MICHAEL
NOLAN/SPECIALISTSTOCK (EAGLE'SHEAD), © AARON JOEL SANTOS (BAMBOO FOREST), ALL
FROM AURORA PHOTOS; © GETTY ELLIS/GLOBIO/MINDEN PICTURES/CORBIS (PANDA AND
GRASS); PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY VANITY FAIR
SOFT POWER For America, the
best response to China is to put our own house in order.
When the history of 2014 is written, it
will take note of a large fact that has received little attention: 2014 was the
last year in which the United States could claim to be the world’s largest
economic power. China enters 2015 in the top position, where it will likely
remain for a very long time, if not forever. In doing so, it returns to the
position it held through most of human history.
Comparing the gross domestic product of
different economies is very difficult. Technical committees come up with
estimates, based on the best judgments possible, of what are called
“purchasing-power parities,” which enable the comparison of incomes in various
countries. These shouldn’t be taken as precise numbers, but they do provide a
good basis for assessing the relative size of different economies. Early in
2014, the body that conducts these international assessments—the World Bank’s
International Comparison Program—came out with new numbers. (The complexity of
the task is such that there have been only three reports in 20 years.) The
latest assessment, released last spring, was more contentious and, in some
ways, more momentous than those in previous years. It was more contentious
precisely because it was more momentous: the new numbers showed that China
would become the world’s largest economy far sooner than anyone had expected—it
was on track to do so before the end of 2014.
The source of contention would surprise
many Americans, and it says a lot about the differences between China and the
U.S.—and about the dangers of projecting onto the Chinese some of our own
attitudes. Americans want very much to be No. 1—we enjoy having that status. In
contrast, China is not so eager. According to some reports, the Chinese
participants even threatened to walk out of the technical discussions. For one
thing, China did not want to stick its head above the parapet—being No. 1 comes
with a cost. It means paying more to support international bodies such as the
United Nations. It could bring pressure to take an enlightened leadership role
on issues such as climate change. It might very well prompt ordinary Chinese to
wonder if more of the country’s wealth should be spent on them. (The news about
China’s change in status was in fact blacked out at home.) There was one more
concern, and it was a big one: China understands full well America’s
psychological preoccupation with being No. 1—and was deeply worried about what
our reaction would be when we no longer were…
No comments:
Post a Comment