Electoral battles

How Donald Trump could win - and why

It is a cliche that Trump's base is "the white working class" - in fact, he draws support from across classes, and the average income of his supporters in the Republican primaries is far higher than that for the population. Nonetheless, there is a big chunk of white workers who are supporting Trump.

And with the record number of the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids and the increase in police violence, coupled with Clinton's record of support for mass incarceration and deportations - particularly younger blacks and Latinos - voters may not turn out in the numbers that Clinton needs.

Currently, even amid the Clinton bounce, Trump is competitive in swing states such as Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and even Pennsylvania, where a rise in racism and economic insecurity could give Trump a way in. All of these states went to Obama in 2012, yet they are within a fingernail's reach of being taken by Trump.